Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks


The goal of this paper is to identify epidemiological factors that correlate with either an increased or decreased risk of transmitting a particular disease. We are particularly interested in identifying such factors for diseases that are self-limited (meaning that infections tend to occur in isolated clusters), because targeted control of these diseases can facilitate public health goals for minimizing the risk of disease emergence or promoting disease elimination. For example, we show that there is a significant difference in the transmission of measles between the United States and Canada. In contrast, we find that an observed decrease in the transmission of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus during the latter half of 2013 cannot be ascertained with sufficient confidence. We then quantify the degree to which control was effective in eradicating smallpox in Europe. We also consider how the transmission of monkeypox in humans depends on whether the infection source is an animal or a human. Finally, we demonstrate how our approach can be used by surveillance programs to detect changes in transmission that may occur over time.


Vyšlo v časopise: Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks. PLoS Pathog 10(10): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452

Souhrn

The goal of this paper is to identify epidemiological factors that correlate with either an increased or decreased risk of transmitting a particular disease. We are particularly interested in identifying such factors for diseases that are self-limited (meaning that infections tend to occur in isolated clusters), because targeted control of these diseases can facilitate public health goals for minimizing the risk of disease emergence or promoting disease elimination. For example, we show that there is a significant difference in the transmission of measles between the United States and Canada. In contrast, we find that an observed decrease in the transmission of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus during the latter half of 2013 cannot be ascertained with sufficient confidence. We then quantify the degree to which control was effective in eradicating smallpox in Europe. We also consider how the transmission of monkeypox in humans depends on whether the infection source is an animal or a human. Finally, we demonstrate how our approach can be used by surveillance programs to detect changes in transmission that may occur over time.


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Štítky
Hygiena a epidemiológia Infekčné lekárstvo Laboratórium

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PLOS Pathogens


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