Inferring Influenza Infection Attack Rate from Seroprevalence Data

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Seroprevalence studies have been regarded as the most practical method for accurately estimating the number of infections in influenza epidemics and pandemics. However, methods for inferring the number of infections from seroprevalence data in previous studies have mostly been based on conventional practice instead of standardized criteria. Specifically, there are no systematic criteria on how to select the seropositivity threshold and adjust for the proportion of infections that become seropositive. Here, we showed that under the conventional criteria, the number of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 infections had been substantially underestimated in Hong Kong as well as other countries, mostly due to overestimation of the proportion of infections that became seropositive. Our results highlighted the need to reexamine the widely accepted practice in interpreting seroprevalence data, especially in the context of pandemics when little is known but robust and comparable estimates of the number of infections and severity are most needed for informing situational awareness and guiding control policies.

Vyšlo v časopise: Inferring Influenza Infection Attack Rate from Seroprevalence Data. PLoS Pathog 10(4): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1004054
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004054

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