The current and potential health benefits of the National Health Service Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme in England: A microsimulation study

1. Frieden TR, Berwick DM. The “Million Hearts” initiative—preventing heart attacks and strokes. N Engl J Med. 2011;365: e27. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1110421 21913835

2. Murray CJL, Richards MA, Newton JN, Fenton KA, Anderson HR, Atkinson C, et al. UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2013;381: 997–1020. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60355-4 23668584

3. Public Health England. From evidence into action: opportunities to protect and improve the nation’s health [Internet]. London; 2014. Available: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/366852/PHE_Priorities.pdf

4. The World Health Organisation. Global action plan to prevent and control non-communicable diseases [Internet]. Geneva; 2013. Available: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/94384/1/9789241506236_eng.pdf

5. British Heart Foundation. CVD Statistics—BHF UK Factsheet. London; 2016.

6. Kotseva K, De Bacquer D, De Backer G, Rydén L, Jennings C, Gyberg V, et al. Lifestyle and risk factor management in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease. A report from the European Society of Cardiology European Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention by Intervention to Reduce Events (EUROASPIRE) IV cross-sectional survey in 14 European regions. Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2016;23: 2007–2018. doi: 10.1177/2047487316667784 27638542

7. Department of Health. Putting Prevention First—Vascular Checks: risk assessment and management [Internet]. 2008. Available: www.healthcheck.nhs.uk/document.php?o = 227

8. Public Health England. NHS Health Check Best Practice Guidance [Internet]. London; 2017. Available: http://www.healthcheck.nhs.uk/commissioners_and_providers/guidance/national_guidance1/

9. Capewell S, McCartney M, Holland W. NHS Health Checks—a naked emperor? J Public Health (Oxf). 2015;37: 187–92. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdv063 26022810

10. Krogsbøll LT, Jørgensen KJ, Grønhøj Larsen C, Gøtzsche PC. General health checks in adults for reducing morbidity and mortality from disease: Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2012;345: e7191. doi: 10.1136/bmj.e7191 23169868

11. Jørgensen T, Jacobsen RK, Toft U, Aadahl M, Glümer C, Pisinger C. Effect of screening and lifestyle counselling on incidence of ischaemic heart disease in general population: Inter99 randomised trial. BMJ. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2014;348: g3617. doi: 10.1136/bmj.g3617 24912589

12. Waterall J, Greaves F, Kearney M, Fenton KA. Invited debate: NHS Health Check: an innovative component of local adult health improvement and well-being programmes in England. J Public Health (Bangkok). Oxford University Press; 2015;37: 177–184. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdv062 26022808

13. Robson J, Dostal I, Sheikh A, Eldridge S, Madurasinghe V, Griffiths C, et al. The NHS Health Check in England: an evaluation of the first 4 years. BMJ Open. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2016;6: e008840. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008840 26762161

14. Chang KC-M, Soljak M, Lee JT, Woringer M, Johnston D, Khunti K, et al. Coverage of a national cardiovascular risk assessment and management programme (NHS Health Check): Retrospective database study. Prev Med (Baltim). 2015;78: 1–8. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2015.05.022 26051202

15. Kypridemos C, Allen K, Hickey GL, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Buchan I, et al. Cardiovascular screening to reduce the burden from cardiovascular disease: microsimulation study to quantify policy options. BMJ. 2016;353.

16. Schuetz CA, Alperin P, Guda S, van Herick A, Cariou B, Eddy D, et al. A Standardized Vascular Disease Health Check in Europe: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. Federici M, editor. PLoS One. Public Library of Science; 2013;8: e66454. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0066454 23869204

17. Local Government Association, Public Health England. NHS Health Check—Frequently Asked Questions [Internet]. London; 2013. Available: www.healthcheck.nhs.uk/document.php?o=448

18. The BBC. In full: Brown speech on the NHS. In: BBC News [Internet]. 2008 [cited 1 Mar 2017]. Available: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7175083.stm

19. The BBC. Free health checks could save lives, Jeremy Hunt says. In: BBC News [Internet]. 2013 [cited 1 Mar 2017]. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23394314

20. Krska J, du Plessis R, Chellaswamy H. Views and experiences of the NHS Health Check provided by general medical practices: cross-sectional survey in high-risk patients. J Public Health (Bangkok). Oxford University Press; 2015;37: 210–217. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdu054 25118218

21. Baker C, Loughren EA, Crone D, Kallfa’ N. Patients’ perceptions of a NHS Health Check in the primary care setting. Qual Prim Care. 2014;22: 232–7. Available: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25897543 25897543

22. University College of London. Health Survey for England [Internet]. [cited 16 Jan 2017]. Available: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/hssrg/studies/hse

23. University College of London. English Longitudinal Study of Aging [Internet]. [cited 16 Jan 2017]. Available: https://www.elsa-project.ac.uk/

24. Barendregt J, van Oortmarssen G, Vos T, Murray C. A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II. Popul Health Metr. 2003;1: 4. doi: 10.1186/1478-7954-1-4 12773212

25. Office for National Statistics. Deaths registered in England and Wales, 2011 [Internet]. Newport, Wales; 2013. Available: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-27772730

26. Office for National Statistics. Cancer Registrations in England, 2011 [Internet]. Newport, Wales; 2013. Available: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-302299

27. Office for National Statistics. Mortality Statistics: Deaths registered in England and Wales, 2012. London; 2014.

28. Health & Social Care Information Centre. National Diabetes Audit 2011–12 Report 2: Complications & Mortality [Internet]. Leeds; 2013. Available: https://digital.nhs.uk/catalogue/PUB12738

29. Matthews FE, Arthur A, Barnes LE, Bond J, Jagger C, Robinson L, et al. A two-decade comparison of prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 years and older from three geographical areas of England: results of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study I and II—PIIS0140673613615706.pdf. In: The Lancet [Internet]. 2013 [cited 5 Dec 2013] pp. 1405–1412. Available: http://download.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140673613615706.pdf?id=410a13c7e856fa01:-537181ea:142b8fe4bec:1b371386088006979

30. Rait G, Walters K, Bottomley C, Petersen I, Iliffe S, Nazareth I. Survival of people with clinical diagnosis of dementia in primary care: cohort study. BMJ. 2010;341: c3584. Available: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2917003&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract doi: 10.1136/bmj.c3584 20688840

31. National Centre for Social Research. Health Survey for England, 2012 [computer file]. Colchester; 2013.

32. Luengo-Fernandez R, Gray AM, Rothwell PM, Oxford Vascular Study on behalf of the OV. A population-based study of hospital care costs during 5 years after transient ischemic attack and stroke. Stroke. American Heart Association, Inc.; 2012;43: 3343–51. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.112.667204 23160884

33. British Heart Foundation Centre On Population Approaches For Non-Communicable Disease Prevention. Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2015. London; 2016.

34. Smolina K, Wright FL, Rayner M, Goldacre MJ. Determinants of the decline in mortality from acute myocardial infarction in England between 2002 and 2010: linked national database study. BMJ. 2012;344: d8059. doi: 10.1136/bmj.d8059 22279113

35. Lee S, Shafe ACE, Cowie MR. UK stroke incidence, mortality and cardiovascular risk management 1999–2008: time-trend analysis from the General Practice Research Database. BMJ Open. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2011;1: e000269. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000269 22021893

36. Parkin DM. 2. Tobacco-attributable cancer burden in the UK in 2010. Br J Cancer. Cancer Research UK; 2011;105 Suppl: S6–S13. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2011.475 22158323

37. Lee Y, Back JH, Kim J, Kim S-H, Na DL, Cheong H-K, et al. Systematic review of health behavioral risks and cognitive health in older adults. Int Psychogeriatr. 2010;22: 174–87. doi: 10.1017/S1041610209991189 19883522

38. Matthews FE, Brayne C, Lowe J, McKeith I, Wharton SB, Ince P. Epidemiological Pathology of Dementia: Attributable-Risks at Death in the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study. Gandy S, editor. PLoS Med. Public Library of Science; 2009;6: e1000180. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000180 19901977

39. Barnes DE, Yaffe K. The projected effect of risk factor reduction on Alzheimer’s disease prevalence. Lancet Neurol. 2011;10: 819–828. doi: 10.1016/S1474-4422(11)70072-2 21775213

40. Public Health England, UK Health Forum. Blackfriars Consensus on promoting brain health: Reducing risks for dementia in the population [Internet]. London; 2014. Available: https://www.alz.co.uk/sites/default/files/pdfs/Blackfriars-Consensus-Statement-promoting-brain-health.pdf

41. Schrijvers EMC, Verhaaren BFJ, Koudstaal PJ, Hofman A, Ikram MA, Breteler MMB. Is dementia incidence declining?: Trends in dementia incidence since 1990 in the Rotterdam Study. Neurology. 2012;78: 1456–63. doi: 10.1212/WNL.0b013e3182553be6 22551732

42. Office for National Statistics. National Life Tables, 2010–2012. In: England, Interim Life Tables, 1980–82 to 2010–12 [Internet]. 2013. Available: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-325699

43. Public Health England. NHS Health Check data. In: NHS Health Check data 2015 [Internet]. 2015 [cited 16 Jun 2015]. Available: http://www.healthcheck.nhs.uk/commissioners_and_providers/data/

44. Public Health England. NHS Health Check Best Practice Guidance. London; 2017.

45. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, Robson J, Minhas R, Sheikh A, et al. Predicting cardiovascular risk in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QRISK2. BMJ. 2008;336: 1475–82. doi: 10.1136/bmj.39609.449676.25 18573856

46. Smolina K, Wright FL, Rayner M, Goldacre MJ. Long-term survival and recurrence after acute myocardial infarction in England, 2004 to 2010. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes. 2012;5: 532–40. doi: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.111.964700 22740013

47. Lee S, Shafe ACE, Cowie MR. UK stroke incidence, mortality and cardiovascular risk management 1999–2008: time-trend analysis from the General Practice Research Database. BMJ Open. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2011;1: e000269. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000269 22021893

48. Kivipelto M, Ngandu T, Laatikainen T, Winblad B, Soininen H, Tuomilehto J. Risk score for the prediction of dementia risk in 20 years among middle aged people: a longitudinal, population-based study. Lancet Neurol. 2006;5: 735–741. doi: 10.1016/S1474-4422(06)70537-3 16914401

49. NHS England. NHS Health Checks: National Data [Internet]. [cited 16 Mar 2015]. Available: https://www.healthcheck.nhs.uk/commissioners_and_providers/data/

50. Robson J, Dostal I, Sheikh A, Eldridge S, Madurasinghe V, Griffiths C, et al. NHS Health Check programme—National Evaluation 2009–2013. London; 2014.

51. Ahern AL, Wheeler GM, Aveyard P, Boyland EJ, Halford JCG, Mander AP, et al. Extended and standard duration weight-loss programme referrals for adults in primary care (WRAP): a randomised controlled trial. Lancet (London, England). Elsevier; 2017;389: 2214–2225. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30647-5 28478041

52. Naderi SH, Bestwick JP, Wald DS. Adherence to drugs that prevent cardiovascular disease: meta-analysis on 376,162 patients. Am J Med. 2012;125: 882–7.e1. doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2011.12.013 22748400

53. Lemstra M, Alsabbagh MW. Proportion and risk indicators of nonadherence to antihypertensive therapy: a meta-analysis. Patient Prefer Adherence. Dove Press; 2014;8: 211–8. doi: 10.2147/PPA.S55382 24611002

54. Faculty of Public Health. Response from the Faculty of Public Health: Technical Consultation on Economic Modelling of a Policy of Vascular Checks. [Internet]. London; 2008. Available: http://www.fph.org.uk/uploads/DH_vascular_checks_0808.pdf

55. Chowdhury R, Khan H, Heydon E, Shroufi A, Fahimi S, Moore C, et al. Adherence to cardiovascular therapy: a meta-analysis of prevalence and clinical consequences. Eur Heart J. 2013;34: 2940–8. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/eht295 23907142

56. Ferguson J, Bauld L, Chesterman J, Judge K. The English smoking treatment services: one-year outcomes. Addiction. 2005;100: 59–69. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2005.01028.x 15755262

57. Stubbs RJ, Pallister C, Whybrow S, Avery A, Lavin J. Weight Outcomes Audit for 34,271 Adults Referred to a Primary Care/Commercial Weight Management Partnership Scheme. Obes Facts. 2011;4: 1–1. doi: 10.1159/000327249 21577018

58. Cholesterol Treatment Trialists’ (CTT) Collaboration, Fulcher J, O’Connell R, Voysey M, Emberson J, Blackwell L, et al. Efficacy and safety of LDL-lowering therapy among men and women: meta-analysis of individual data from 174 000 participants in 27 randomised trials. Lancet. 2015;385: 1397–1405. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61368-4 25579834

59. Heran BS, Wong MM, Heran IK, Wright JM. Blood pressure lowering efficacy of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors for primary hypertension. In: Heran BS, editor. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd; 2008. p. CD003823. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD003823.pub2 18843651

60. Turnbull F, Woodward M, Neal B, Barzi F, Ninomiya T, Chalmers J, et al. Do men and women respond differently to blood pressure-lowering treatment? Results of prospectively designed overviews of randomized trials. Eur Heart J. 2008;29: 2669–2680. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehn427 18852183

61. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Quitting smoking among adults—United States, 2001–2010. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2011;60: 1513–9. Available: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22071589 22071589

62. Antonopoulos AS, Margaritis M, Lee R, Channon K, Antoniades C. Statins as anti-inflammatory agents in atherogenesis: molecular mechanisms and lessons from the recent clinical trials. Curr Pharm Des. Bentham Science Publishers; 2012;18: 1519–30. doi: 10.2174/138161212799504803 22364136

63. Robson J, Dostal I, Madurasinghe V, Sheikh A, Hull S, Boomla K, et al. The NHS Health Check programme: implementation in east London 2009–2011. BMJ Open. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2015;5: e007578. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-007578 25869692

64. Sullivan PW, Slejko JF, Sculpher MJ, Ghushchyan V. Catalogue of EQ-5D Scores for the United Kingdom. Med Decis Mak. SAGE PublicationsSage CA: Los Angeles, CA; 2011;31: 800–804. doi: 10.1177/0272989X11401031 21422468

65. Sutton S, Bickler G, Sancho-Aldridge J, Saidi G. Prospective study of predictors of attendance for breast screening in inner London. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1994;48: 65–73. Available: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8138773 8138773

66. Waller J, Jackowska M, Marlow L, Wardle J. Exploring age differences in reasons for nonattendance for cervical screening: a qualitative study. BJOG An Int J Obstet Gynaecol. 2012;119: 26–32. doi: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2011.03030.x 21668764

67. Johns LE, Moss SM, Trial Management Group. Randomized controlled trial of mammographic screening from age 40 (‘Age’ trial): patterns of screening attendance. J Med Screen. 2010;17: 37–43. doi: 10.1258/jms.2010.009091 20356944

68. Bhatnagar P, Wickramasinghe K, Wilkins E, Townsend N. Trends in the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in the UK. Heart. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Cardiovascular Society; 2016;102: 1945–1952. doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309573 27550425

69. Wang YC, McPherson K, Marsh T, Gortmaker SL, Brown M, Chisholm D. Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK. Lancet (London, England). Springer, New York; 2011;378: 815–25. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60814-3

70. Grey C, Jackson R, Wells S, Marshall R, Riddell T, Kerr AJ. Twenty-eight day and one-year case fatality after hospitalisation with an acute coronary syndrome: a nationwide data linkage study. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2014;38: 216–220. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12241 24890478

71. Davies CA, Leyland AH. Trends and inequalities in short-term acute myocardial infarction case fatality in Scotland, 1988–2004. Popul Health Metr. 2010;8: 33. doi: 10.1186/1478-7954-8-33 21134255

72. Office for National Statistics. Migration by Age. In: Census 2011 [Internet]. 2011 [cited 20 Nov 2017]. Available: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/UKMIG001/view/2092957699?rows=c_migr&cols=c_age

73. Crossan C, Lord J, Ryan R, Nherera L, Marshall T. Cost effectiveness of case-finding strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a modelling study. Br J Gen Pract. 2017;67: e67–e77. doi: 10.3399/bjgp16X687973 27821671

74. Goldacre B, Smeeth L. Mass treatment with statins. BMJ. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2014;349: g4745. doi: 10.1136/bmj.g4745 25056140

75. Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn CL, Pearson AL, van der Deen FS, Kvizhinadze G, et al. Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand. PLoS Med. Public Library of Science; 2015;12: e1001856. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856 26218517

76. Saxon DR, Eckel RH. Statin Intolerance: A Literature Review and Management Strategies. Prog Cardiovasc Dis. 2016;59: 153–164. doi: 10.1016/j.pcad.2016.07.009 27497504

77. Rose G. Sick individuals and sick populations. Int J Epidemiol. Oxford University Press; 2001;30: 427–432. doi: 10.1093/ije/30.3.427 11416056

78. He FJ, Brinsden HC, MacGregor GA. Salt reduction in the United Kingdom: a successful experiment in public health. J Hum Hypertens. 2014;28: 345–52. doi: 10.1038/jhh.2013.105 24172290

79. Department of Health. National Service Framework For Coronary Heart Disease [Internet]. London; 2000. Available: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/198931/National_Service_Framework_for_Coronary_Heart_Disease.pdf

80. Vascular Team Department of Health. Economic Modelling for Vascular Checks. London; 2008.

81. Fenton KA, Kelly M, Newton J, Patrick Z, Richards M. NHS Health Check: our approach to the evidence. 2013.

82. Eddy DM, Schlessinger L. Validation of the archimedes diabetes model. Diabetes Care. 2003;26: 3102–10. Available: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14578246 14578246

83. Chang KC-M, Lee JT, Vamos EP, Soljak M, Johnston D, Khunti K, et al. Impact of the National Health Service Health Check on cardiovascular disease risk: a difference-in-differences matching analysis. CMAJ. Canadian Medical Association; 2016;188: E228–38. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.151201 27141033

84. Mytton O, Gray A, Rayner M, Rutter H. Could targeted food taxes improve health? J Epidemiol Community Heal. 2007/07/17. 2007;61: 689–694. doi: 10.1136/jech.2006.047746 17630367

85. Pharoah PDP, Sewell B, Fitzsimmons D, Bennett HS, Pashayan N. Cost effectiveness of the NHS breast screening programme: life table model. BMJ. 2013;346: f2618. doi: 10.1136/bmj.f2618 23661112

86. Tappenden P, Chilcott J, Eggington S, Sakai H, Karnon J, Patnick J. Option appraisal of population-based colorectal cancer screening programmes in England. Gut. 2007;56: 677–684. doi: 10.1136/gut.2006.095109 17142648

87. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification (CG181). London; 2016.

88. Godtfredsen NS, Prescott E. Benefits of smoking cessation with focus on cardiovascular and respiratory comorbidities. Clin Respir J. 2011;5: 187–194. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-699X.2011.00262.x 21689381