Estimated mortality on HIV treatment among active patients and patients lost to follow-up in 4 provinces of Zambia: Findings from a multistage sampling-based survey

1. UNAIDS. Fast-track: ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030. Geneva: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV. AIDS. 2014.

2. UNAIDS. 90-90-90: An ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic. UNAIDS, 2014.

3. Farahani M, Vable A, Lebelonyane R, Seipone K, Anderson M, Avalos A, et al. Outcomes of the Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme from 2002 to 2010: a longitudinal analysis. Lancet Glob Health. 2014;2(1):e44–50. Epub 2014/08/12. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70149-9 25104635.

4. Cornell M, Johnson LF, Wood R, Tanser F, Fox MP, Prozesky H, et al. Twelve-year mortality in adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in South Africa. J Int AIDS Soc. 2017;20(1):21902. Epub 2017/09/28. doi: 10.7448/IAS.20.1.21902 28953328.

5. Schomaker M, Gsponer T, Estill J, Fox M, Boulle A. Non-ignorable loss to follow-up: correcting mortality estimates based on additional outcome ascertainment. Stat Med. 2014;33(1):129–42. Epub 2013/07/23. doi: 10.1002/sim.5912 23873614; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3859810.

6. Brinkhof MW, Pujades-Rodriguez M, Egger M. Mortality of patients lost to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programmes in resource-limited settings: systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS ONE. 2009;4(6):e5790. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0005790 19495419.

7. PEPFAR. PEPFAR Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting (MER 2.0) Indicator Reference Guide: Version 2.1. January 2017.

8. Stover J, Johnson P, Zaba B, Zwahlen M, Dabis F, Ekpini RE. The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating mortality, ART needs, PMTCT impact and uncertainty bounds. Sexually Transmitted Infections. 2008;84:I24–I30. doi: 10.1136/sti.2008.029868 ISI:000257843600005. 18647862

9. Geng EH, Odeny TA, Lyamuya RE, Nakiwogga-Muwanga A, Diero L, Bwana M, et al. Estimation of mortality among HIV-infected people on antiretroviral treatment in east Africa: a sampling based approach in an observational, multisite, cohort study. The Lancet HIV. 2015. Epub 2015/10/02. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(15)00002-8 26424542; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC4480204.

10. Yiannoutsos CT, An MW, Frangakis CE, Musick BS, Braitstein P, Wools-Kaloustian K, et al. Sampling-based approaches to improve estimation of mortality among patient dropouts: experience from a large PEPFAR-funded program in Western Kenya. PLoS ONE. 2008;3(12):e3843. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0003843 19048109.

11. Zurcher K, Mooser A, Anderegg N, Tymejczyk O, Couvillon MJ, Nash D, et al. Outcomes of HIV-positive patients lost to follow-up in African treatment programmes. Trop Med Int Health. 2017;22(4):375–87. Epub 2017/01/20. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12843 28102610; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC5580236.

12. Egger M, Spycher BD, Sidle J, Weigel R, Geng EH, Fox MP, et al. Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS Med. 2011;8(1):e1000390.

13. Geng EH, Bangsberg DR, Musinguzi N, Emenyonu N, Bwana MB, Yiannoutsos CT, et al. Understanding reasons for and outcomes of patients lost to follow-up in antiretroviral therapy programs in Africa through a sampling-based approach. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2010;53(3):405–11. Epub 2009/09/12. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181b843f0 19745753.

14. Aalen OO, Johansen S. An empirical transition matrix for non-homogeneous Markov chains based on censored observations. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. 1978 : 141–50.

15. Satagopan JM, Ben-Porat L, Berwick M, Robson M, Kutler D, Auerbach AD. A note on competing risks in survival data analysis. Br J Cancer. 2004;91(7):1229–35. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602102 15305188.

16. Allison PD. Missing Data. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.; 2002.

17. Lorenz MO. Methods of measuring the concentration of wealth. Publications of the American statistical association. 1905;9(70):209–19.

18. Helleberg M, Afzal S, Kronborg G, Larsen CS, Pedersen G, Gerstoft J, et al. Mortality attributable to smoking among HIV-1–infected individuals: a nationwide, population-based cohort study. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2013;56(5):727–34. doi: 10.1093/cid/cis933 23254417

19. Bor J, Rosen S, Chimbindi N, Haber N, Herbst K, Mutevedzi T, et al. Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa. PLoS Med. 2015;12(11):e1001905; discussion e. Epub 2015/11/26. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001905 26599699; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC4658174.

20. Grimsrud A, Bygrave H, Doherty M, Ehrenkranz P, Ellman T, Ferris R, et al. Reimagining HIV service delivery: the role of differentiated care from prevention to suppression. Journal of the International AIDS Society. 2016;19(1).

21. Duncombe C, Rosenblum S, Hellmann N, Holmes C, Wilkinson L, Biot M, et al. Reframing HIV care: putting people at the centre of antiretroviral delivery. Tropical Medicine & International Health. 2015;20(4):430–47.

22. Siedner MJ, Ng CK, Bassett IV, Katz IT, Bangsberg DR, Tsai AC. Trends in CD4 count at presentation to care and treatment initiation in sub-Saharan Africa, 2002–2013: a meta-analysis. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2014;60(7):1120–7. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu1137 25516189

23. Van Cutsem G, Ford N, Hildebrand K, Goemaere E, Mathee S, Abrahams M, et al. Correcting for mortality among patients lost to follow up on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort analysis. PLoS ONE. 2011;6(2):e14684. Epub 2011/03/08. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0014684 21379378; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3040750.

24. Heestermans T, Browne JL, Aitken SC, Vervoort SC, Klipstein-Grobusch K. Determinants of adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-positive adults in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review. BMJ global health. 2016;1(4):e000125. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000125 28588979

25. Czaicki NL, Holmes CB, Sikazwe I, Bolton C, Savory T, wa Mwanza M, et al. Nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients in Zambia is concentrated among a minority of patients and is highly variable across clinics. AIDS. 2017;31(5):689–96. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001347 28225707

26. Van Rie A, Westreich D, Sanne I. Tuberculosis in patients receiving antiretroviral treatment: incidence, risk factors and prevention strategies. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999). 2011;56(4):349. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181f9fb39 20926954

27. Marsh DR, Schroeder DG, Dearden KA, Sternin J, Sternin M. The power of positive deviance. BMJ: British Medical Journal. 2004;329(7475):1177. doi: 10.1136/bmj.329.7475.1177 15539680

28. Schoenfeld AJ, Davies JM, Marafino BJ, Dean M, DeJong C, Bardach NS, et al. Variation in quality of urgent health care provided during commercial virtual visits. JAMA internal medicine. 2016;176(5):635–42. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.8248 27042813

29. Munson J, Morden N, Goodman D, Valle L, Wennberg J. The Dartmouth atlas of Medicare prescription drug use. Lebanon, NH: The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice; 2013. Available from: http://www.dartmouthatlas.org/downloads/reports/Prescription_Drug_Atlas_101513.pdf

30. Bendavid E, Holmes CB, Bhattacharya J, Miller G. HIV development assistance and adult mortality in Africa. Jama. 2012;307(19):2060–7. doi: 10.1001/jama.2012.2001 22665105

31. Boulle A, Schomaker M, May MT, Hogg RS, Shepherd BE, Monge S, et al. Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies. PLoS Med. 2014;11(9):e1001718. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001718 25203931